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Women’s long struggle for equality (2)

La longue lutte des Femmes pour l’égalité (2)

Taking the opposite view of Albert Einstein, some people, in favor of authorizing ethnic statistics, say that which is not cunted does not count (1). Statistics, beyond the equality proclaimed, make it possible to show the gender inequalities in the facts and the slow progress towards equality in different domains.

Politically. The proportion of women in the European Parliament is gradually increasing from 16.6% in 1979-84 to 36.6% in 2014-19. This proportion varies from one country to another, at the lowest, in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria (respectively 17.7%, 19.1%, 23.1% and 23.5% of European women deputies). ), Sweden and Finland (55% and 53.9%). France is with 43.2% is in fifth place (2).

« Toute l’Europe » published, in September 2017, information on the proportion of women in national parliaments, the lower house only (in France, Assemblée nationale). Again, Sweden and Finland top the table with respectively 43.6% and 42% women Members of Parliament, Spain comes in third (39.1%). But these countries are only, respectively, 6th, 9th and 14th in the world ranking. At the bottom of the table are Latvia (16%), Malta (11.9%) and Hungary (10.1%). With 38.8% of women deputies, France comes fourth (3).

In France, the proportion of women in the Senate is lower than in the Assemblée nationale: 31.8%. However, it has been steadily increasing since 2001 (Table 1)

Table 1: Number and Percentage of Women in the Senate (4)

Election

Number

Percentage

2001

35

10,9 %

2004

60

18,1 %

2008

75

21,9 %

2011

77

22,10%

2014

87

25,0 %

2017

110

31,80%

Regarding the ministerial posts, for the 28 States of the Union, the proportion of women is only 25%. On the first of July 2017, two countries have more female ministers than male ministers: France (58%, excluding secretaries of state) and Sweden (52%), followed by Slovenia (44%). At the bottom of the table, Malta and Slovakia (14%) and Cyprus and Hungary who have no women at the head of a ministry (5).

After the last cabinet reshuffle, the French government, consisting of the Prime Minister, is made up of 20 ministers, 11 women and 9 men, and 12 secretaries of state, 7 men and 5 women, ie 32 posts equally distributed.

If inequalities slowly fade at the level of deputies and ministers, we are still far from the mark in certain functions. Despite the parity law of June 2000, 83% of outgoing mayors in 2014 were men (6) and 87% of the top of the 2014 municipal elections (7).

La longue lutte des Femmes pour l’égalité (2)

he situation is evolving even more slowly at the social and economic level.

In the European Union, the average wage gap between men and women, which was 17% in 2012, increased to 16.7 in 2014 and 16.3 in 2015. However, depending on the country, this difference varies from 5.5 to 26.9%. In Italy and Luxembourg (5.5%), Romania (5.8%), Poland (7.7%) and Slovenia (8.1%) the gaps are the lowest, the largest are Estonia (26.9%), the Czech Republic (22.5%), Germany (22%), Austria (21.7%) and the United Kingdom (20.8%).
France is in the middle of the table with 15.8% (8).

In France, entrepreneurs are mostly men: 60% of autoentrepreneurs, 75% of managers of limited liability companies and 83% of salaried managers of other companies, according to INSEE (9). The proportion of women decreases as the size of the enterprise increases: 37% of people working alone in their company, 28% in companies with 2 to 4 people, 16% in companies with 20 to 49 people and 14% in companies with businesses with 50 or more people. They are fewer in these positions and earn less: 31% less than men. What INSEE explains by fewer hours worked over the year (10)

Alternatives économiques examines the proportion of women and men who have a managerial position based on their academic background (Table 2).

Table 2: Percentage of women and men framework according to the diplomas

Niveau

% women managerial staff

% men managerial staff

Bac+2

8,6

23,4

Bac+3 ou plus

35,9

62,2

At the equivalent level, the employment rate of women is lower than that of men and women are less often managers than men. In total, men’s incomes are more than 30% higher than those of women at all levels of education and even reach 46% for holders of Bac + 3 and above. These inequalities appear from the beginning of the professional activities and increase thereafter: which means lower income for women by 25% compared to men at 25 and 64% at 65 (11)! For the positions of CEO, if we believe LeFigaro, things do not seem to improve. In 2015, just under one in five companies changed CEOs globally, the highest rate in 16 years. On this occasion, of the 359 new appointments, 10 were women, or 3% (12).

In terms of wages and employment, the road to gender equality will be long.

La longue lutte des Femmes pour l’égalité (2)
Publicités

Women’s long struggle for equality (1)

La longue lutte des Femmes pour l’égalité (1)

The day of November 25 is dedicated by the UN to violence against women. This year, it has had a significant impact. Probably because it was coming after the Harvey Weinstein affair. It is to be hoped that, one event chasing the other, the question will not be forgotten until next year.

In 1993, the United Nations General Assembly adopted the Declaration on the Elimination of Violence against Women, and in 1999, on 25 November, was proclaimed International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, in remembrance of the assassination, sponsored by the dictator Rafael Trujillo, of the three Mirabal sisters, Dominican political activists, on November 25, 1960.

 Some figures, published on the occasion of this day, give an idea of the extent of the problem.
According to the United Nations, data from 87 countries from 2005 to 2016, 19% of women aged 15 to 49 report having experienced physical or sexual violence by an intimate partner in the 12 months preceding the survey (1).

In the European Union, in 2015, 215,000 sexual crimes were reported to the police, one-third of them rapes. The victims are women in 90% of the cases and 99% of those imprisoned for these crimes are men.

In France, the police registered 16,741 complaints, nearly 50 sexual assault reports and 31 rape complaints per 100,000 inhabitants (10,729 complaints in total).
All these figures probably underestimate the importance of the phenomenon because they only count the cases reported to the police (2).

Beyond the case, we must not forget a permanent and universal phenomenon. In the UN survey, cited above, in 2012, nearly half of the world’s female homicide victims were killed by an intimate partner or family member, compared with 6% of men.
In France, two women die every week and one man every two weeks because of violence in the couple.

The main cause, for homicide men, is the refusal of a separation in progress or that has already taken place. For women, often victims of previous violence, it is the occasion of yet another dispute (3).

In 2014, La Croix reported a survey of the European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights on 42,000 Europeans: one in five women reported being victims of physical and / or sexual violence. For France, one in four women. And three out of four French women have been harassed against one in two in Europe. Nearly one out of two had to deal with physical, sexual or psychological violence in childhood against a third of Europeans.
Surprisingly enough in this study, the Scandinavian countries, Finland, Sweden, are rather misclassified. More than the importance of violence, this would translate into a more free speech of women, more aware (4).

Whatever the studies, the results do not make it possible to establish a track record between the countries because the figures collected depend enormously on the conditions of collection of information, sensitization and general attitudes towards sexual violence. They only allow to highlight and the ubiquity and the importance of the problem.

Sexual harassment, rape are widespread in time, they do not date from yesterday, and in space, social classes, countries, continents.

La longue lutte des Femmes pour l’égalité (1)

The Harvey Weinstein affair played a special role this year, because Hollywood’s most powerful film producer thought himself untouchable and had a behavior that everyone knew was particularly hateful.
For this behavior to be denounced in the press, it took women who have a certain social surface to publicly assume their accusation.

Two well-known women journalists: Megan Twohey, who helped uncover, among other things, the behavior of Donald J. Trump towards women and Jodi Kantor, a specialist in gender and labor issues that followed the US presidential campaign of 2008 , who challenged Harvey Weinstein, in the New York Times on October 5, 2017. They were relayed on October 10 by an article by New Yorker Ronan Farrow.

In total, Harvey Weinstein has been publicly charged with sexual harassment, offering to promote their career for sexual favors, wanting to buy the silence of some of his victims for large sums and rapes, which many people knew, by more than 70 women, mostly actresses but also employees, journalists, producers, models who felt strong enough for that.

These behaviors are more prevalent among women in situations of weakness for whom it is difficult to protest. Sometimes, it is the victims who are condemned! In 2007, a MeToo campaign was launched to denounce sexual violence, particularly against visible minorities. Without much success (5).
This year, following articles in the two prestigious newspapers, an American actress is proposing to resume the #metoo campaign to share stories of sexual and gender-based violence in different media. Other personalities are implicated. From there, other women rose, all over the world ..

This campaign is taken over in France in the form #BalanceTonPorc so that fear changes camp. It’s a quick success. And #MeToo and also taken in 85 countries including, after the United States, the UK, India, Pakistan, Japan … But still in other languages and countries: in French in Canada, in Arabic, Tunisia, Egypt, Dubai: أنا_كمان, China: # 我 也是, Spain: # YoTambién, South Korea: # 나도, Vietnam: # TôiCũngVậy, Israel: גםאנחנו # (UsAussi), Italy: #QuellaVoltaChe (TheTimewhen)

The messages broadcast report facts from words to rape through harassment, aggression … in different professional circles (entertainment world, politics, finance, sport …), school, family, sometimes by designating known personalities. Some of whom resign from their job …

La longue lutte des Femmes pour l’égalité (1)

In this story, the insightful philosopher Alain Finkielkraut immediately sees the profound meaning of the operation one of the objectives of the campaign #balancetonporc was to play the fish of Islam.
Certainly, it is conceivable that the denunciation of people and the elegant form of the French #BalanceTonPorc shock him. It is much less acceptable that he underestimates the seriousness of the facts, the hierarchical blackmail, the rape, the murdered women …, that it minimizes the courage of these women who expose themselves.
He could have recognized, for once, the benefits of the opening of studies, here and elsewhere, to thousands of girls who, little by little, have acquired the cultural, professional, economic means of their independence.

In 1965, I was very surprised to find in an amphitheater of the faculty of letters in Toulouse that the vast majority of the audience was female! I came to the conclusion that it had to be translated, one day or another, at the level of society. I did not know how

Quite simply, for fifty years, women have taken charge of struggles for their liberation, their autonomy and equal rights. That this poses problems for some people, for society … it is obvious, but liberation poses always problems. A new balance is to be found.

Now, we must hope that this event does not fall into oblivion until the next case. That it will favor, at least in certain societies, the evolution of mentalities not towards a war of the sexes but towards the invention of a new living together, more balanced.

La longue lutte des Femmes pour l’égalité (1)

ATTAC and Climate

français

Some pictures of the Attac event at the One Planet Summit on the Place du Pantheon in Paris, against investments and subsidies for the energies of the past. Which lead humanity to its loss.

 

ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
Les peuples submergés par les pussances économiques et financières....
Les peuples submergés par les pussances économiques et financières....
Les peuples submergés par les pussances économiques et financières....
Les peuples submergés par les pussances économiques et financières....
Les peuples submergés par les pussances économiques et financières....
Les peuples submergés par les pussances économiques et financières....
Les peuples submergés par les pussances économiques et financières....
Les peuples submergés par les pussances économiques et financières....
Les peuples submergés par les pussances économiques et financières....

People submerged by the economic and financial powers ….

se soulèvent et montrent qu'une autre politique est possible...
se soulèvent et montrent qu'une autre politique est possible...
se soulèvent et montrent qu'une autre politique est possible...

stand up and show that another policy is possible …

ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT
ATTAC et LE CLIMAT

After us the deluge ?

Après nous, le déluge ?

History is made up of struggles, peaceful or otherwise, between social groups. These struggles result in a more or less stable balance, by the victory of one group over the other or by a compromise. Waiting for new conflicts or the rebirth of old conflicts.

At the international level, with nuclear energy, over-armament and the system of blocs and alliances, the risk has appeared of a global conflagration with the possible disappearance of all humanity, belligerents and non-belligerents alike. The awarness of this risk, where everyone would be defeated, led to the Cold War, the balance of terror, the lack of direct confrontation between the two world superpowers, the persistent military confrontation across wars by local belligerents interposed …

The disappearance of the USSR has diminished, without making it unthinkable, the risk of widespread nuclear conflict. Because states in latent conflict have nuclear weapons and remain a danger for humanity … Hence the interest of a treaty of generalized nuclear disarmament.

Today, there is a new risk for humanity and many life forms on the planet: the competition of all against all, individuals or groups, with the development of technical and scientific possibilities in the search for ever more, more, more accumulation and grabbing of material goods, …
Come what may.

This infinite course does not evolve as it was announced towards the exhaustion of the resources, more or less repulsed by the discovery of new deposits or means of exploitation.But the release into the earth, into the water, into the air of products make them dangerous, unfit for consumption and a factor of climatic disturbance with catastrophic consequences .

Après nous, le déluge ?

Climate-skeptics are increasingly rare even though the weight of Donald Trump is not negligible. If they think that global warming is not exclusively due to human activity, they should admit that it is not useful for it to contribute to it …

At the international level, the important influence of human activities on the future of the planet has been recognized for many years now. At the request of the G7, under the pressure of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created in 1988 to counter a UN agency that was too supportive of climate change.

Since then, the Giec keeps issuing warnings. The first report (1990) reported that since 1900 the temperature had increased by about 0.5 ° C. In the third (2001), he predicted a temperature increase between 1.4 ° C and 5.8 ° C between 1990 and 2100 and reported that the rate of warming was unprecedented for the last ten millennia. The fifth (2014) stated that it was possible to limit the rise in temperature to 2 ° C more than before the industrial revolution if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced by 40 to 70% between 2010 and 2050 And also that the only use of available fossil fuel reserves would lead to a warming of 4 to 5 ° C in 2100 …

The most dangerous does not appear the depletion of reserves but the discovery of news that could lead to their exploitation and global warming … of 7 or 8 ° C in the following century (1)

These reports served as a basis for international meetings where resolutions are adopted by more and more States. But without major practical consequences for the moment.

Après nous, le déluge ?

It is not possible, however, to say that nothing has changed. The question, with the help of large ecological organizations, more than ecological parties that have not even been able to take advantage of the wave, has entered the public debate.

The Paris Conference, despite its shortcomings, is a major event: for the first time, all states on the planet agree on the diagnosis. The signed text sets a goal quantified, even if it is insufficient and especially insufficiently funded, even if, 2 years later, the commitments of the signatories are not up to the situation.
Even though COP23 took place in the absence of one of the most polluting states on the planet at the moment when 15,364 scientists from 184 countries, biologists, physicists, astronomers, chemists, agronomists … launched a cry of alarm … on the state of the planet, a warning to humanity (2).

From now on, scientists know and let know what they know, in particular the risks of turning to the irreversible. Governments know. Politicians know. The people know. Everyone knows.

We all know. We continue to behave as if we do not believe in what we know. Sometimes, what we say! Powers act more in terms of their short-term interest than in the maintenance of life, of humanity in the time ahead.

However, a part of the population is already suffering the consequences of climate change: natural disasters, but data from the UN Office for Risk Reduction show that in 2014, 87% were linked to global warming of the planet (3).

Après nous, le déluge ?
More and more displaced people are forced to flee their land due to the intensity of extreme natural disasters (4). In its first report on the uprooted by climate change, Oxfam estimates them at 23.5 million in 2016: total not taking into account the slow and not spectacular catastrophes, droughts or rise of the level of the sea. (5). In 2014, 87% of climate refugees were Asian.
Pollution is responsible for 5.5 million premature deaths worldwide each year, half in China and India (6).

COP23 was chaired by the Republic of Fiji, reflecting the concern of many Pacific islands threatened with extinction by the rising waters: 9.2 million people in 22 island states. Some may disappear in the next thirty years.
Lawyers take the issue seriously. They are wondering what will become of the island states that are going to be submerged when, according to international law, territorial sovereignty and the benefits derived from it presuppose a natural expanse of land surrounded by water that remains uncovered at high tide. (7).
Populations have already started to emigrate (57% of Samoans and 46% of Tongans live abroad).
To prevent or reduce the severity of future disasters, COP21 agreed to limit global warming to no more than 2 degrees and, if possible, to 1.5 by 2100. COP23 acknowledged that current state commitments and that warming is more likely to be 3 degrees or more (8).

In France, according to a report by ADEME, it is possible to produce 100% of electricity with renewable energies in 2050: 63% wind, 17% solar, 13% hydro, 7% thermal. Which would not cost more than keeping 50% of nuclear as planned.
But this report has disappeared (9). And for the moment, France is falling behind on its commitments.

Given the weakness of policies, the immediate interests of financiers, an international popular mobilization is necessary to push for effective decision-making.

Beyond the country, French banks play a big role in financial investments in very important mining projects. While developing a rhetoric against climate change, French banks increased by 218% their financing in the coal sector between 2005 and 2013. Over this period, France is the fourth country that has financed the most. sector, behind China, the United States and the United Kingdom.
But it is possible to put pressure on these banks that are sensitive to their image: BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole and Societe Generale have pledged to stop funding Pharaonic mining projects in the Galilee basin, near the eastern coast of the Australia where stands the Great Barrier Reef. (10).

Après nous, le déluge ?
At the initiative of Emmanuel Macron, after the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris agreement, the One Planet Summit will be held at the Seine Musical in December. It will welcome 2000 people including a hundred heads of state or government. This summit is organized with the UN, the OECD, the European Union, the World Covenant of Mayors, the C40 cities network, the NGOs of the Climate Action Network, companies, on the search for funding to accelerate the fight against global warming (11).
Will one month after COP23 be more effective than this one?

In the meantime, carbon dioxide emissions will increase by 2% in 2017, while they have been stable since 2014, according to a study by the international consortium of scientists, the Global Carbon Project. Staying below 2 ° C warming by 2100 seems unreachable. Without a very rapid decline in carbon emissions, warming of 1.5 ° C will be achieved in ten years, 2 ° C in a few decades and 3 or 4 ° C by the end of the century (12).

Some 20 countries, at the initiative of Canada and the United Kingdom, including France, Costa Rica, Fiji, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Italy and New Zealand, announced , at COP23, their desire to close the coal plants by 2030 at the latest.
The notion of growth is, more and more, to question. But the United States since 2005 has reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 11.5 percent by increasing national wealth by 15 percent, according to the US representative at COP23. In 2017, after five years of decline, carbon dioxide emissions from coal are expected to increase slightly as a result of price developments and Donald Trump’s willingness to revive this energy (13).

Climate events are all the more catastrophic as they cause material and human damage. These disasters mainly affect the weakest populations: the poorest countries, the least well-equipped or organized and, in rich countries, the poorest populations.

At the global level, the richest 10% are the source of 50% of greenhouse gas emissions, while the poorest 50% contribute 10%. At the scale of a country like India, half of the emissions related to the electric production is the fact of less than 15% of the population, whereas nearly a third of the Indians is deprived of access to the network (14).

Finally, rich countries pollute more per capita than poor countries. In rich countries and poor countries, rich people pollute more than poor people. And it is these people who hold the power of decision. While before reaching everyone, climate disasters primarily affect poor and poor countries.

Those who hold the powers are the most dangerous for the future. This is to say the difficulty of making decisions that call into question the financial, economic, social and political organization. And even more to apply them.

Everyone knows.

The year 2016 was the hottest since the first recordings at the end of the 19th century. The displaced are millions.
If a change of course is not taken quickly, after us the deluge may not be a metaphor! 

Après nous, le déluge ?

1 – https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupe_d%27experts_intergouvernemental_sur_l%27%C3%A9volution_du_climat)

2 – Le Monde 13/11/17

3 – Libération 16/03/15

4 – Le Monde 02/11/17

5 – http://www.oxfamfrance.org/rapports/changement-climatique-protection-des-civils-crises-humanitaires/deracines-par-changement

6 – Le Figaro 12/02/16

7 – Foreign affairs 04/09/15, cité par Courrier international 17/12 06/01/16

8 – Le Monde 31/10/17

9 – Mediapart 08/04/15

10 – Le Monde.fr 08/04/15

11 – La Tribune 07/11/17

12 – Mediapart 14/11/17

13 – Le Figaro 16/11/17

14 – Alternatives économiques 16/11/2017

After the legislative elections in Germany

Après les législatives en Allemagne

Français

The results of the German parliamentary elections (in the Bundestag, the Federal Diet) are very worrying. Yet it was not totally unexpected because these elections come after many others just as disturbing but quickly forgotten by the liberal, Europeanist, political and media optimism. They become excited a moment for results considered as catastrophic and forget them the next day having found the miracle cure: close their eyes and continue or accentuate the policy sanctioned by the voters.

The nomenclature of the European Union (EU) has already been disappointed on several occasions.

In France, in 2002, the Front National (FN) participated in the second round of a presidential election to which Jean-Marie Le Pen obtained 17.8% of the votes. In 2017, Marine Le Pen did much better: 33.9%!
But the voting method helps, Emmanuel Macron is elected by a very large majority, as any candidate would have been facing Marine Le Pen. The newly elected, strong of these results and of an exorbitant constitutional power, can engage resolutely in a policy approved by a quarter of the electors.
The FN is virtually excluded from the National Assembly and all oppositions are very limited.

 

Between these two presidential elections, the no won in the referendum of 2005 on the proposal of European Constitution. But the politicians, right and left confused, despised the result. The parliament adopted the text, little modified, refused by the French people.
Everything is for the best in the best of democratic worlds …

At the European level, whenever a people has said no to a question asked about the EU, politicians have erased this result, sometimes by a new vote of the people.

In Hungary, Viktor Orbán, leader of the Fidesz (1), supporter of the national revolution and a very conservative policy has been in power since 2010. On bases close to those of the AfD today.

In October 2015, the Poles gave an absolute majority to Democratic Right and Justice (PiS), a conservative and Eurosceptic party.

In December 2016, in Austria, in the first round of the presidential election, the candidates of the two parties of government, Social Democratic and Conservative, are eliminated. In the second round, great satisfaction: the green candidate is elected President of the Republic, the far right candidate gets only 48.3% of the vote.
There are more demanding satisfactions.

In the Netherlands, in March 2017, the Prime Minister’s Popular Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) led the legislative elections by losing 8 seats compared to the previous election in 2012 and its Social Democratic partner, the Labor Party (PvdA) receives only 5.7% of the votes and gets only 9 elected (29 seats lost).
This defeat of the ruling parties is hailed as a victory because Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) did worse than it could have hoped for and only got 13.1% of the vote and 20 deputies (5 seats won).
Since then, the Netherlands is looking for a government …

In January 2015, Greek citizens brought Syriza and Alexis Tsipras to power, challenging the Greek government’s austerity policy and its European tutelage. Notably Angela Merkel.
Greece has not finished paying for this crime and has been on the brink of expulsion from the EU.

 

 

Après les législatives en Allemagne

 

Everywhere, the parties of government, whether in power or in alternation with the government and the opposition, lose ground here on the right, there on the left, or on both.

Germany was exceptional for its apparent stability until the last parliamentary elections (2). However, the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland, Alternative for Germany) progressed to the various elections.

The AfD was created in 2013 by economics professors on an anti-euro, liberal, Russian-speaking program. It has evolved into anti-immigration and anti-islam party.

A few months after its foundation, it shortly missed its entry in the Bundestag with more than 2 million votes, or 4.7%. She would have had to collect 5%!

In the European elections in 2014, it obtained 7% of the votes and 7 out of 96 deputies. Since 2014, in every regional election, the AFD obtains elected representatives: in all, it currently has elected people in 13 regions out of 16 (3 regions in 2014 , 2 in 2015, 5 in 2016, 3 in 2017), reaching up to 20.8% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and 24.3% in Saxony-Anhalt. In the 2017 legislative elections, with nearly 6 million votes (12.6%), it became the third party in Germany and elected 94 deputies (out of 709).

Angela Merkel, designated 10 times (2006-2009 and 2011-2016) as the most powerful woman in the world, became Mutti, the mother of the nation and, recently, by journalists like Jakob Augstein, « the mother of the monster « .

Angela Merkel, Chancellor of powerful Germany for 12 years, can not be held to be irresponsible of the disaffection for the EU, in all even the most Europhile countries, and the rise of the extreme right across the EU. Angela Merkel and her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, have imposed their austerity policies on all EU countries, with the more or less forced, more or less enthusiastic agreement of national governments.

In France, the economic and social policy of the German government is presented as the model, often with some oversights: development of renewable energies, stoppage of nuclear energy, immigration …

Until the last few weeks, politicians and the media have been praised for its excellent results: thanks to the reforms of Gerhard Schröder, Social Democratic Chancellor 1998 -2005, and to the policy followed by Angela Merkel and her coalition governments with the SPD (2005), the FDP (2009) and again the SPD (2013): growth rate at the highest, partly boosted by the arrival of immigrants (3), unemployment divided by three in twelve years, falling government debt, positive balance of public finances, strong trade balance, particularly with other EU states

More recently, data have been published that are known but discreetly ignored because they are less flattering and less appealing: doubling the percentage of the poor population since 2015 and the number of working poor, with full employment obtained with mini-jobs. In addition to the 2.5 million official unemployed, 1 million people are underemployed and many of them are working poor who are not counted as unemployed. Increase of 30% of poor pensioners … cities in budget crisis, poor state of infrastructure due to lack of investment

Finally, the policy of rigor has exacerbated the cleavage between countries of northern and southern Europe. But even in so-called prosperous countries such as the Netherlands, Scandinavia, Austria and now Germany … the development of inequalities, an increase in the number of very rich and poor, leads to the emergence of contestation. The CDU / CSU of Angela Merkel and Worfgang Schäuble has clearly won the legislative elections but with the lowest rate since 1949. And since 1933, for the SPD, its ally to the government in the last legislature !!!
This is the sanction of the policy followed since Gerhard Schröder by the two governing parties, CDU / CSU and SPD.

 

 

Après les législatives en Allemagne

 

Faced with the success of the AfD, only the Liberal Party (FDP) has improved its position. Belonging to the government, it did not reach the 5% in 2012 and was no longer present in the Bundestag. He returned to it because of his evolution towards European skepticism.

The entry into the Bundestag, for the first time since the end of World War II, of a far-right party created a shock. Demonstrations took place on Sunday 24 September in the evening in several German cities in Cologne, Frankfurt, Munich and Berlin. Here the cries of « all Berlin hates the Nazis« , « Nazis out » or « racism is not an alternative« , « we are united, you are shit« , « crush nationalism » …
It is not clear that this is the right way to stop the AfD’s progress. The French experience has shown the limits of this type of manifestation.

The SPD decided not to participate in the next coalition government, not because its policy was bad for the population, for Germany or for the EU, it was the party who was behind with Gerhard Schröder, which supported it during two of the three mandates of Angela Merkel: 8 out of 16 ministers in the Merkel I cabinet, including those of Labor and Social Affairs, Foreign Affairs and Finance; 6 out of 16 in the Merkel III cabinet, including those from the Economy and Energy (4), Foreign Affairs, Labor and Social Affairs … But because of the bad results in the elections.
There is no doubt that it will profit from its passage in the opposition to give color to its future program … to win votes … But what degree of confidence will the German voters be able to grant it?

 

The Merkel IV government announced could regroup the CDU / CSU, the FDP and the Grünen (the Greens). Difficulty due to divergent positions of the FDP and the Grünen on the EU. That is to say that only Die Linke who defends an anti-liberal line and democratic socialism could embody a left-wing opposition, which has not been the case so far while the SPD was in government. This is likely to be even more difficult with an SPD officially in opposition

 

Après les législatives en Allemagne

 

1 – The Fidesz for Fiatal Demokraták Szövetsége (Alliance of Young Democrats) is the most common name of the party chaired by Viktor Orbán. From 1995, its official name was Fidesz – Magyar Polgári Párt (Hungarian Civic Party), and from 2003 Fidesz – Magyar Polgári Szövetség (Hungarian Civic Alliance).

2-Results: CDU / CSU: 32.93% (-8.6), SPD: 20.51 (-5.2), AfD: 12.64 (+7.9), FDP: 6), Die Linke: 9.24 (+0.7), Die Grünen 8.94 (+0.5).

3 – Growth in the German economy, which stands at 1.9% in 2016, is half a percentage point higher than the average of the previous ten years (1.4%). The increase in government spending and the overall increase in consumption due to the arrival of refugees have had a strong spillover effect on the economy. Le Monde Économie, 13/01/17.

4 – Shortly after his retirement from politics, Gerhard Schröder was appointed head of the consortium for the construction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, the first partner of which is the Russian company Gazprom (Wikipedia).

A reopening of social struggles

Français

The Cgt, Solidaires, Unef … called for a strike and protest on September 12 and 21 against the Labor Act (La loi travail), the ordinances and more generally against the social policy of President Macron and his government.

At the demonstration on the 12, the police counted 223,000 people nationwide, and Libération notes that this participation can be considered a success if compared with the first demonstration against the law El Khomri, March 9, 2016 , which had gathered, according to the police always, 224 000 people especially if one takes into account that this time, FO did not call for the demonstration at national level. And even more so if one thinks of the important defeat of the left during the presidential and legislative elections which do not allow to hope for a political outlet to this revolt against the government in place.

 Concerning September 21, police and unions recorded figures lower than those of the 12, in Paris 16,000 against 24,000 according to the police, and for the whole country 132,000 instead of 223,000. Whatever the scale , we are far from a 50% drop, calculated by Libération and even Mediapart. At the Parisian level, the drop on the basis of police data is 33% and at the national level 41%.
It is therefore a notable drop that Libération translates into a shortness of breath and the Observateur by a drop in form. What is more cautious about the future, especially if we take into consideration the emergence of new movements of disputes such as the snail operations and blockades of motorways launched on this occasion, the absence of national dailies in the kiosks or the strike surprise, masked under the stops-disease, of several hundred CRS.

 In any case, it is hardly possible to predict what will happen now.
Initially, the Macron projects deeply divided the unions and F.O. refused to demonstrate but, at the same time, the division touches F.O. Part of F.O. joined the protesters and also some CFDTs and even CFTC. On the other hand, the Reformist unions say they are disappointed and some deceived by the government.

New trade union demonstrations have already been announced. Will the reformist unions come to join them? Will the demonstration called by La France insoumise be a success, will it appear complementary or competing with those of the trade unions? Will it succeed in mobilizing more broadly, on a Saturday, beyond the workers of trade unionists?

Some pictures of the September 12 demonstration

Une rentrée de luttes sociales
Une rentrée de luttes sociales
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Some pictures of the sptember 21 demonstation.

 

Une rentrée de luttes sociales
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Absent to the demonstration called by La France insoumise, I will not post a photo on the blog.

The demonstration launched by La France Insoumise grouped, according to the police, 30,000 people. Beyond verbal (« déferlement », flood) and digital inflation (150,000 according to the organizers), this participation is a popular success.
And a political success with the announced participation of Benoît Hamon, and that of Pierre Laurent who, once again, played the « j’y vas ti, j’y vas ti pas «  (hesitation)

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Presidential election: cluster bomb and time bomb ?

Macron et après ?

Emmanuel Macron is elected President of the Republic after a devastating election campaign: everything has to be rebuilt for everyone. And especially for democracy.
Emmanuel Macron was elected with a comfortable majority. But…

It should not be forgotten that in the first round he obtained only 24% of the votes and that a good part of the 66% obtained in the second round are voices of refusal of Marine Le Pen. Whatever the national press says today, which made the « useful » voting in the first and second ballots the main argument for Macron choice. The international press, relieved, makes this election an unconditional adherence to the European Union, dubbed Europe. This promises more alignment with the European Union than it is with initiatives for a social and democratic Europe.
Even more than his predecessor, everything but Nicolas Sarkozy, Emmanuel Macron is elected by default, everything but Marine Le Pen. The magic of the electoral system magnifies the political line of less than a quarter of the voters of the first round …

Which team? This is where the problems begin. It is not surprising that Emmanuel Macron is not in a hurry to give the name of his Prime Minister. The ambiguity must last as long as possible to maintain the hope of everyone in view of the legislative elections.

Macron et après ?
There is no longer a party of united government, of right or left, if that ever existed. There were at least appearances. The caciques are either eliminated or in great danger of being so. The survivors will be counted after the legislative elections.
There is not, at present, a majority of government. It all depends on the next election. What will Emmanuel Macron decide on the investitures: candidates « En Marche », pure label? Presidential majority, open to all supporters, with what distribution between PS, LR and Macroniens pure label? What is the place for recycling? For outgoing MPs?
The cluster bomb of the presidential election is also a time bomb. Its effects will be felt during the legislative elections and well afterwards. A reconstruction of the entire political landscape is likely. So that nothing changes. In the legislative elections, all those who voted Emmanuel Macron will not vote for candidates stamped Macron. Risk of appearing multiple competitors rallied from the first or last hourAlready, those who want to participate in the government and those who just want to support are heard. Those who want to make a presidential party and those who want to preserve, in one form or another, their old structure, opposition? Participation? Splits are going on right. Some think that there is a place for a right-wing opposition that could recover some of the voters of Marine Le Pen and even go a long way with the reasonable part of this party which also wants to open to approach the power.

Macron et après ?
For we must not forget Marine Le Pen and the National Front. She came in second in the first round, with 21.3% and 34% and 10.6 million votes in the second. That is twice as much as Jean-Marie Le Pen (5.5 million) in 2002 against Jacques Chirac.
These results are the best obtained by the NF and Marine Le Pen and constitute an important progression compared to the previous results, witnesses of the failure of the policies followed to date.
This vote is likely to be somewhat forgotten, especially if the glass ceiling is effective locally in the legislative elections to prevent the election of deputies of the NF. These results only moderately worry politicians. They will be able to use them, again in the legislative elections, to promote the useful vote for them, which allows them to continue. What worries them even less than the results is the situation of the citizens who vote National Front by suffering and despair.
In the last days of the campaign, the « dediabolisation » was translated into the desire of Marine Le Pen not to appear as the president of the NF, by the opening to Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, the confusion about retirement or Exit of the euro … But too little and too late. Insufficient to approach power and 40%.
Hence his desire to pursue a change that reveals divisions between those who want to go further, change the name of the party, expand further … And those who want to maintain and return to the fundamentals, especially on immigration. With some mistakes like the behavior of Marine Le Pen during the debate between the two rounds, the unfortunate appointment of an interim president not presentable …
Also with the temptation of hardening, violence for some who hardly support a « dediabolisation » that they accepted in the hope of reaching power soon. 
 A maintained PS seems to have little chance. Those who could do it, because they hold the organization, do not want it. Valls has long said, the word socialist irritates his gums. Those who want are not able to. The 6% of Hamon is not enough. And is it playable, given the historical vicissitudes of the family that goes from Guy Mollet to François Hollande through the illusionist François Mitterrand?

Francois Hollande, by his sacrifice, has practically succeeded. Breaking the PS and paving the way for a government party that will not have finance as an enemy, which will have eliminated any socialist superego to make it the equivalent of the Italian Democratic Party (PD) or the German Social Democratic Party . The French socialist exception, admittedly illusory, has lived.

For the PS minority, for EELV, their separate future is fragile. Their future in common uncertain. Temptation of a new PSU? With the same future? A dynamic merger towards an unequivocal left-wing ecologist party? Or end of comet bringing together ecologists who have followed the tribulations of the PS and the socialists who denounced them?

The left of the left is in a situation, apparently, more positive. The work, methods and results of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and France Insoumise bring hope with many pitfalls. Jean-Luc Mélenchon and François Hollande killed the PS. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Pierre Laurent kill the PC? Or the PC and France Insoumise?

The importance, never achieved, of abstention and of white or null votes can make hope for the continuation of the mobilization around France Insoumise. More than 4.2 million voters turned out for the second round and put a blank or no ballot in the box (2.15 million in 2012), a record for such a ballot, already marked by a very strong abstention (25.44%). But it must not be forgotten that these abstentions and votes are not all left-wing.
On the other hand, if the left of the left regains a certain dynamism, it can attract again a part of those who voted Macron under the pressure of the commentators of polls (more than polls themselves), editorialists, some thinkers of the left who played with fear, with bad conscience. At first and second round.
In the first round, 4 candidates obtained results close to 20% with an abstention rate of the same level. In the second round, Emmanuel Macron took him far ahead of Marine Le Pen. But the results and the importance of the abstentions and of the white and nil vote in the two rounds do not make it possible to foresee the composition of the next National Assembly, since it will depend on very different circumstances in the 577 constituencies. It will depend on the dynamics that will be created in the coming days.
It is not sure that it benefits only Emmanuel Macron.
This allows everyone to leave with some hope. And with great expectations for the polls and their commentators.

Macron et après ?

Second round and after?

Second tour et après ?
In the first round of the presidential election, 4 candidates obtain around 20% of the votes cast. The others behind Benoît Hamon (6.36%) and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (4.7%), each get less than 2%.
These 20% do not have the same meaning for all applicants. They give Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen the opportunity to participate in the second round.
It is a remarkable personal success for Emmanuel Macron, unknown a few years ago, having never faced universal suffrage, without any apparatus. He was able to create around his person with a fuzzy program, an impressive dynamic by the media and political people that he provoked. Supports the young candidate harvests throughout the political spectrum. In the media. Aided by the great fear aroused by the possible victory of Marine Le Pen and the floats in the extreme right, disoriented by the misadventures of his stubborn champion.

Asset and problem for Emmanuel Macron: the overflow of disparate rallies, in view of the legislative elections. Candidates, more or less known, today and yesterday, coming from the center, the right or the left, ready to pursue the policy of Mitterrand, Chirac, Sarkozy, Holland but expecting some rewards …
Perhaps, Emmanuel Macron could hire Francois Hollande as adviser to the synthesis …

Marine Le Pen did not arrive, as she hoped and as many announced, at the head of this first round. Nevertheless, she continues to increase in number of votes and in percentage compared to the previous presidential elections.
Considering assured her popular base, she is pursuing a second-round policy by widening her base to the right with Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and returning on promises of retirement at age 60, on the exit of the euro not for to morrow….

We must thank François Fillon. To have, by his stubbornness and his shattering social program, eliminated the right of the presidency. To have revealed how easily the virtuous right is ready to become the extreme right when it finds a champion, apparently clean on him, with the just ostentation that allows to recognize the good society. Fraudster of social fraud, it is by no means hampered by small family arrangements, small gifts between friends.
The eternal contradiction between the moralism displayed for the common people and the morality practiced between one another.

The biggest increase is that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, rising from 11.10% in 2012 (3 984 822voices) to 19.58% (7 060 885) in 2017 when he could not count neither on a decided party, nor on an important network of elected officials, the difficulty in collecting signatures has clearly shown. And with media more interested, initially, by his character, then by his qualities of speaker, finally by his international tropisms but much more rarely by the work in the elaboration of his program, he has built with the social and the ecological, by his desire of a new democracy with the participation of the maximum number of citizens, by his will to attack the far right vote and abstention (caravans for registration on the electoral roll). In the face of the mobilizations he provoked, the media ended by discovering that he had partially circumvented them by its own means.

During this first round, there has already been talk of the useful vote in favor of Emmanuel Macron. It is not unrelated to the fact that Jean-Luc Mélenchon can not participate in the second round, he missed only 600,000 votes. Nationally, it receives 19.58% of the vote. This percentage is between 27 and 30%, according to the surveys, among 18-24 year olds, twice 2012, 24% among workers, and 22% among employees.
Among Muslims, the most secular candidate of the presidential election obtained 37% of the votes (20% in 2012) against 24% for Emmanuel Macron, 17% for Benoît Hamon, 10% for François Fillon and 5% for Marine Le Pen (Poll Ifop – Le Pèlerin).

Second tour et après ?Since the beginning of the electoral campaign, many are giving wise advice to Jean-Luc Mélenchon: to participate in the brilliant primary of the Beautiful People’s Alliance, to rally Benoît Hamon before he is abandoned by the PS and its electors, Now to join the camp of fear.
Yesterday, the fear of everything had bad press because it urged citizens to vote Le Pen, now the fear of Marine Le Pen has good press to push to Macron vote. But the press is always the press, it always goes in the same direction. Yesterday and today ! Bring back into the ranks and in this case, the vote Emmanuel Macron!
Knowing the diversity of points of view of the supporters of The France insoumise for the vote in the second round, Jean-Luc Mélenchon said he would vote but did not say how. It does not give a voting instruction to preserve the unity of the Insoumis before the legislative élections. While recalling that voting Front National was not an option. Neither for him nor for the Insoumis consulted.
La France insoumise organized a consultation open to all the Insoumis to say what they were going to do in the second round, but this consultation is not normative.
He held out a pole to Emmanuel Macron, asking him to make a gesture on the labor law that Macron immediately rejected.
It was predictable. Perhaps he could have asked for a gesture on the use of 49-3 and the ordinances that Emmanuel Macron said he would use them this summer to go faster. A short-circuit, good start, without democratic debate!

Second tour et après ?
The result of the consultation of the Insoumis is now known. 243,000 people gave their opinion about 55% of the 440,000 registered to support the candidacy of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Of course, people can change between the time they gave their opinion and the day of the ballot. But this is not a poll, it is the result of a consultation: white or null vote, 36.12%, vote Emmanuel Macron 34.83%, abstention 29.05% (1). Two-thirds 65.17% will not vote for Emmanuel Macron. According to an Elabe BFMTV poll, 44% of Mélenchon’s voters in the first round would vote for Emmanuel Macron.
These results suggest that the Insoumis will count in the coming weeks. A first indication will be given on Sunday by the rate of abstentions, blank or null ballots: in 2012, there were 9,049,998 abstentions (19.65%), and 2,154,956 blank or invalid ballots (5.82% ) …
 

With the arrival of Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée, they will talk about the triumph of democracy, the Republic, the European Union (which will be called Europe) when we simply elected the ideal son-in-law to continue , the policy pursued for years – with the success known both from a socio-economic and a political point of view with the vote of Marine Le Pen – by the successive rulers whose artisans find themselves in En Marche! The UMPS, as the National Front said, officialized! 

Still, the results of the second round will not settle everything. But to serve as a basis for the discussions, already engaged in all the camps for the legislative investitures. The victory in the presidential election will certainly give a dynamic. It is not certain that it is sufficient to obtain a majority in the National Assembly. Still less a coherent majority. 

From this point of view, Jean-Luc Mélenchon makes risky calculations when he announces that, with the results of the presidential election, La France insoumise can hope to be present in 451 of the 577 districts where it has exceeded the threshold of 12.5% ​​needed to qualify for the second round including the 67 where he came in first. It is probable that there will be many triangulars or even quadrangular ones, but these multiple candidatures risk dividing the left as well as the right. 

It is however a motive for energizing the Insoumis especially if the rate of abstentions, white or null votes is important. Abstentions, white or null votes, form  of resistance, of hope. They will not be counted for the election but will be examined closely and will weigh in the mobilization. 

Hope now is in a refounding of the left around France Insoumise and a group of deputies as extensive as possible. This is what the results of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round of the presidential allows hope … 

Knowing that this will not be enough. And it will take other mobilizations. But it is the first glimmer in Europe for an opposition, not nationalist but for a change of economic and social orientation. 

1 – Note that these Insoumis did not follow Jean-Luc Mélenchon who will vote on Sunday and wants to make the vote mandatory.

Second tour et après ?

Images du jour : la Société générale, son DG et les paradis fiscaux.

De 13 à 14 heures, un petit rassemblement a été organisé par Attac  à Paris, à quelques centaines de mètres du siège de la Société générale et du commissariat où des militants avaient été convoqués pour une audition libre, à la suite du badigeonnage d’une agence de cette banque.

Attac veut attirer l’attention sur le fait que Frédéric Oudéa, le DG de la Société générale, a nié, lors d’une audition devant le Sénat, toute activité de sa société dans des paradis fiscaux : or, la Société générale a 136 filiales dans les paradis fiscaux, 1005 sociétés offshore et réalise 30% de ses bénéfices dans des paradis !.

Des militants sont fichés et entendus parce qu’ils ont badigeonné des agences, à visage découvert, pacifiquement, pour dénoncer une banque dont les pratiques visent à ne pas payer d’impôts en France. La banque et son DG n’ont pas été convoqués !

Aux yeux de la Justice, il est dangereux, pour la société française, que des militants dénoncent les activités lucratives d’une banque dans les paradis fiscaux. Beaucoup moins que son DG organise la fuite devant l’impôt et le nie devant le Sénat !

Ce qui est certain, c’est fructueux pour la Société générale !!

Pour plus d’infos :https://france.attac.org/se-mobiliser/occupons-la-societe-generale/

 

Les militants avant ou après être passé au Commissariat.
Les militants avant ou après être passé au Commissariat.
Les militants avant ou après être passé au Commissariat.
Les militants avant ou après être passé au Commissariat.

Les militants avant ou après être passé au Commissariat.

Au micro, Aurélie Trouvé, coprésidente d'ATTAC et Dominique Plihon, coprésident d'Attac.Au micro, Aurélie Trouvé, coprésidente d'ATTAC et Dominique Plihon, coprésident d'Attac.

Au micro, Aurélie Trouvé, coprésidente d’ATTAC et Dominique Plihon, coprésident d’Attac.

Images of the day: Société Générale, its CEO and tax havens.

From 13 to 14 hours a small gathering was organized by Attac in Paris, a few hundred meters from the headquarters of the Société Générale and the police station where activists had been summoned for a free hearing, following the brushing of a Agency of that bank.

Attac wants to draw attention to the fact that Frédéric Oudéa, the CEO of the Société Générale, denied, during a hearing in front of the Senators, all his company's activity in tax havens: however, Société Générale has 136 subsidiaries In tax havens and 1005 offshore companies and realizes 30% of its profits in tax havenses!

Activists are recorded and heard because they have whitewashed agencies, face to face, peacefully, to denounce a bank whose practices are aimed at not paying taxes in France. The bank and its CEO were not summoned!

In the eyes of justice, it is dangerous for French society that activists denounce the lucrative activities of a bank in tax havens. Much less than his CEO is organizing the flight to tax and denies it to the Senate!

What is certain, it is fruitful for the Société générale !!