An announced tsunami…

Un tsunami annoncé... (1)

The announced tsunami (1, a) swept the policy and the French political world beyond what had been foreseen and announced ..

With less than a quarter of the votes cast in the first round of the presidential election and less than a third in the legislative elections in favor of La République en marche (LReM), Emmanuel Macron becomes President of the Republic with an absolute majority and very Comfortable, in the National Assembly. And in principle, devoted for 5 years.

If these elections are exceptional, it is less in the distortion between the number of votes obtained and the concentration of power than in the meteoric career of Emmanuel Macron and the unfolding of the electoral sequence.

Francois Hollande, in 2012, after obtaining 28.63% of the votes in the first round of the presidential election, became President of the Republic. The PS, with 29.35% of the votes in the first round of the legislative elections and 34.4% in counting its allies DVG and PRG, obtained 314 seats, ie an absolute majority in the National Assembly without counting the 17 allies, more random, Europe Ecology-The Greens.
This was the last step in a long process of ascending to the power of François Hollande, holder of various mandates since 1983, and of the PS, victorious during all the local elections during the mandate of Nicolas Sarkozy: municipalities of 2008, the Left from the PC to the Greens took control of 149 communes of more than 30 000 inhabitants against 6 for the Modem and 107 for the Right; In 2010, the PS and its allies (DVG and PRG) managed to conquer 22 out of 25 regions, in the metropolis, only Alsace remained on the right; 2011, the Left took the presidency of 57 General Councils, the Center right, 5, and the Right 36. As a bonus, following these various elections, for the first time in its history, the Senate turned left.

In all, after the presidential and legislative elections in 2012, the Left held the Presidency of the Republic, the majority in the National Assembly, the Senate, the Presidency of the majority of the regions, departments and municipal coucils of impotant towns in France.

Emmanuel Macron was not the first to become President of the Republic after passing through the Rothschild bank and without having previously had any electoral mandate. Georges Pompidou had the same course, with a long internship with General de Gaulle to whom he succeeded, after his death. If the first was a literary one and the second was an enarch, they had in common the desire to adapt France to what they considered to be economic modernity.

What is special, it is the course of the career of Emmanuel Macron and the electoral sequence, characterized by the speed of execution to the maneuver.
Georges Pompidou and François Hollande become presidents at 58, Emmanuel Macron at 39, the youngest French president in history!

For the last part of his career, Emmanuel Macron has benefited from favorable legislation: the presidential election immediately followed by the legislative elections, the reversal of the electoral calendar willed by Lionel Jospin, the banning of cumulative mandates and financial penalties for parity push the renewal of political staff.
And especially the political failure of François Hollande and his late decision to give up running for a new term that blocked all candidates from the PS. Except for Macron and Mélenchon, both outside the PS at the time of their decision. Finally, the affairs and the obstinacy of François Fillon deprived Les Républicains of a programmed victory.

It is not possible to forget the very important support that Emmanuel Macron received from the media and the business community. But at first, it was mainly about a Macron bubble, a candidate without experience, too young, without any politic party behind him … The candidate then in court was rather Alain Juppé, the best of us , the wise man, the man of experience, the moderate of the right … Whoever did not have the audacity to cross the Rubicon when the other had already entered Rome!

Emmanuel Macron also knew how to play his lack of program when the Macron law was already well-known, the willingness to align with Angela Merkel’s policy of Germany and his curriculum vitae (fast passages to the PS, Rothschild Bank, adviser of François Hollande, Minister of the Economy) who made him the candidate of the whole right in Europe … In an election campaign, turning mainly on the polls in the Grand Prix de l’Élysée and the practices of Politicians renowned for their high virtue, to the detriment of a real debate, particularly evident in the legislative elections where nothing was organized on television.

It is a relative chance that the despair of the French, after the disappointment of the previous two quinquennas and lack of alternation, found a well channeled outlet to Macron rather than to Marine Le Pen

But this National Assembly, Macron yellow, the elimination of any serious representation of the opposition risks to accentuate a political apathy that already existed and which results in a constant increase of the rate of abstentions in all the elections except during the presidential ones (2).

The consequences of these presidential and legislative elections are many.
The comfortable Macronian majority in the National Assembly should ensure a certain tranquility to the President of the Republic for the quinquennium. Still that the godillots do not always have the same resistance to wear.

Les Républicains, although diminished, although frustrated at being excluded, for the moment, from the government, are the main force of parliamentary opposition. It remains to be seen in this fraternal conflict with LReM which will bring the most parliamentarians to the neighbor. But already covered with debts, Les Républicanis will be in big financial trouble with a significant decrease of the public financing of the political parties.

Un tsunami annoncé... (1)

On the left, things are much more serious. Epinay’s party is dead. If only because of the significant fall in public funding, which is a function of the number of votes in the first round of the legislative elections and the number of elected deputies! With a crack between those who are willing to devote themselves to join the macronian majority and those who want to build something else. This fissure is highlighted with the contradictory withdrawals for the second round of the legislative elections.

Some hope to regroup macronians and macron-compatible in a party that will no longer be the PS, but a center-left party that will find its place as in other Western democracies.

Will the other fraction of the PS, slingers, supporters of Hamon, try to survive alone? By allying with EELV just as badly in point? With a PC that will some day or other make the decision to become an insignificant small group or to merge into an uncertain grouping? A PC which, with a few deputies, may still have some illusions in the general debacle, but which is also going to encounter serious financial problems and, from a political point of view, will find it difficult to find allies which would ensure the survival more and more precarious of its local elected representatives.

The Left, above all, is La France Insoumise. By the number of votes in the first round of the legislative elections, it will receive public funding that will be necessary to ensure the local anchoring as evidenced by the 74 qualifications claimed for the second round against 63 for the PS and 14 for the PC. The election of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Clémentine Autain and some other deputies would be welcome to make the voice of La France Insoumise heard in the National Assembly. In order to survive, it will be necessary to maintain a certain unity and to welcome those who want a real change.

On the far right, the results of Marine Le Pen in the first round of the presidential election made hope to the militants a clearer breakthrough in the second and a significant number of elected in the National Assembly. These hopes have been disappointed. While the prospect of a coming to power by the electoral process fades, intense dissensions appear within the FN, a more vigorous opposition to the government, external to the institutions, could attract many militants.

Un tsunami annoncé... (1)

The lack of institutional and meaningful representation of oppositions in Parliament, with the elimination of the National Front and the Left, is not without dangers.

Emmanuel Macron’s large victory announces a number of measures that would go beyond the El Khomri law, using 49-3 and ordinances. François Hollande succeeded in passing the texts he presented to the National Assembly at the cost of harsh and numerous demonstrations. Emmanuel Macron will try to enjoy the summer and post-election euphoria maintained at national and European level, to go further, as fast as possible without triggering a social turn.

Unless the majority of the population finally thinks that there is only one way and that Emmanuel Macron is the guide. In the absence of a parliamentary opposition, there is a high probability that the opposition will move towards the street. The tsunami could then take on another dimension.

Un tsunami annoncé... (1)

1 –  Le tsunami de la présidentielle a – Le tsunami continue

2 –The abstention, the white vote or the null vote in the second round of the last presidential election are not of the same order, far from talking of a disinterest, they testify of an opposition to the two candidates in presence despite multiple injunctions.


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