Presidential election: cluster bomb and time bomb ?

Macron et après ?

Emmanuel Macron is elected President of the Republic after a devastating election campaign: everything has to be rebuilt for everyone. And especially for democracy.
Emmanuel Macron was elected with a comfortable majority. But…

It should not be forgotten that in the first round he obtained only 24% of the votes and that a good part of the 66% obtained in the second round are voices of refusal of Marine Le Pen. Whatever the national press says today, which made the « useful » voting in the first and second ballots the main argument for Macron choice. The international press, relieved, makes this election an unconditional adherence to the European Union, dubbed Europe. This promises more alignment with the European Union than it is with initiatives for a social and democratic Europe.
Even more than his predecessor, everything but Nicolas Sarkozy, Emmanuel Macron is elected by default, everything but Marine Le Pen. The magic of the electoral system magnifies the political line of less than a quarter of the voters of the first round …

Which team? This is where the problems begin. It is not surprising that Emmanuel Macron is not in a hurry to give the name of his Prime Minister. The ambiguity must last as long as possible to maintain the hope of everyone in view of the legislative elections.

Macron et après ?
There is no longer a party of united government, of right or left, if that ever existed. There were at least appearances. The caciques are either eliminated or in great danger of being so. The survivors will be counted after the legislative elections.
There is not, at present, a majority of government. It all depends on the next election. What will Emmanuel Macron decide on the investitures: candidates « En Marche », pure label? Presidential majority, open to all supporters, with what distribution between PS, LR and Macroniens pure label? What is the place for recycling? For outgoing MPs?
The cluster bomb of the presidential election is also a time bomb. Its effects will be felt during the legislative elections and well afterwards. A reconstruction of the entire political landscape is likely. So that nothing changes. In the legislative elections, all those who voted Emmanuel Macron will not vote for candidates stamped Macron. Risk of appearing multiple competitors rallied from the first or last hourAlready, those who want to participate in the government and those who just want to support are heard. Those who want to make a presidential party and those who want to preserve, in one form or another, their old structure, opposition? Participation? Splits are going on right. Some think that there is a place for a right-wing opposition that could recover some of the voters of Marine Le Pen and even go a long way with the reasonable part of this party which also wants to open to approach the power.

Macron et après ?
For we must not forget Marine Le Pen and the National Front. She came in second in the first round, with 21.3% and 34% and 10.6 million votes in the second. That is twice as much as Jean-Marie Le Pen (5.5 million) in 2002 against Jacques Chirac.
These results are the best obtained by the NF and Marine Le Pen and constitute an important progression compared to the previous results, witnesses of the failure of the policies followed to date.
This vote is likely to be somewhat forgotten, especially if the glass ceiling is effective locally in the legislative elections to prevent the election of deputies of the NF. These results only moderately worry politicians. They will be able to use them, again in the legislative elections, to promote the useful vote for them, which allows them to continue. What worries them even less than the results is the situation of the citizens who vote National Front by suffering and despair.
In the last days of the campaign, the « dediabolisation » was translated into the desire of Marine Le Pen not to appear as the president of the NF, by the opening to Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, the confusion about retirement or Exit of the euro … But too little and too late. Insufficient to approach power and 40%.
Hence his desire to pursue a change that reveals divisions between those who want to go further, change the name of the party, expand further … And those who want to maintain and return to the fundamentals, especially on immigration. With some mistakes like the behavior of Marine Le Pen during the debate between the two rounds, the unfortunate appointment of an interim president not presentable …
Also with the temptation of hardening, violence for some who hardly support a « dediabolisation » that they accepted in the hope of reaching power soon. 
 A maintained PS seems to have little chance. Those who could do it, because they hold the organization, do not want it. Valls has long said, the word socialist irritates his gums. Those who want are not able to. The 6% of Hamon is not enough. And is it playable, given the historical vicissitudes of the family that goes from Guy Mollet to François Hollande through the illusionist François Mitterrand?

Francois Hollande, by his sacrifice, has practically succeeded. Breaking the PS and paving the way for a government party that will not have finance as an enemy, which will have eliminated any socialist superego to make it the equivalent of the Italian Democratic Party (PD) or the German Social Democratic Party . The French socialist exception, admittedly illusory, has lived.

For the PS minority, for EELV, their separate future is fragile. Their future in common uncertain. Temptation of a new PSU? With the same future? A dynamic merger towards an unequivocal left-wing ecologist party? Or end of comet bringing together ecologists who have followed the tribulations of the PS and the socialists who denounced them?

The left of the left is in a situation, apparently, more positive. The work, methods and results of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and France Insoumise bring hope with many pitfalls. Jean-Luc Mélenchon and François Hollande killed the PS. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Pierre Laurent kill the PC? Or the PC and France Insoumise?

The importance, never achieved, of abstention and of white or null votes can make hope for the continuation of the mobilization around France Insoumise. More than 4.2 million voters turned out for the second round and put a blank or no ballot in the box (2.15 million in 2012), a record for such a ballot, already marked by a very strong abstention (25.44%). But it must not be forgotten that these abstentions and votes are not all left-wing.
On the other hand, if the left of the left regains a certain dynamism, it can attract again a part of those who voted Macron under the pressure of the commentators of polls (more than polls themselves), editorialists, some thinkers of the left who played with fear, with bad conscience. At first and second round.
In the first round, 4 candidates obtained results close to 20% with an abstention rate of the same level. In the second round, Emmanuel Macron took him far ahead of Marine Le Pen. But the results and the importance of the abstentions and of the white and nil vote in the two rounds do not make it possible to foresee the composition of the next National Assembly, since it will depend on very different circumstances in the 577 constituencies. It will depend on the dynamics that will be created in the coming days.
It is not sure that it benefits only Emmanuel Macron.
This allows everyone to leave with some hope. And with great expectations for the polls and their commentators.

Macron et après ?


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