Second round and after?

Second tour et après ?
In the first round of the presidential election, 4 candidates obtain around 20% of the votes cast. The others behind Benoît Hamon (6.36%) and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (4.7%), each get less than 2%.
These 20% do not have the same meaning for all applicants. They give Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen the opportunity to participate in the second round.
It is a remarkable personal success for Emmanuel Macron, unknown a few years ago, having never faced universal suffrage, without any apparatus. He was able to create around his person with a fuzzy program, an impressive dynamic by the media and political people that he provoked. Supports the young candidate harvests throughout the political spectrum. In the media. Aided by the great fear aroused by the possible victory of Marine Le Pen and the floats in the extreme right, disoriented by the misadventures of his stubborn champion.

Asset and problem for Emmanuel Macron: the overflow of disparate rallies, in view of the legislative elections. Candidates, more or less known, today and yesterday, coming from the center, the right or the left, ready to pursue the policy of Mitterrand, Chirac, Sarkozy, Holland but expecting some rewards …
Perhaps, Emmanuel Macron could hire Francois Hollande as adviser to the synthesis …

Marine Le Pen did not arrive, as she hoped and as many announced, at the head of this first round. Nevertheless, she continues to increase in number of votes and in percentage compared to the previous presidential elections.
Considering assured her popular base, she is pursuing a second-round policy by widening her base to the right with Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and returning on promises of retirement at age 60, on the exit of the euro not for to morrow….

We must thank François Fillon. To have, by his stubbornness and his shattering social program, eliminated the right of the presidency. To have revealed how easily the virtuous right is ready to become the extreme right when it finds a champion, apparently clean on him, with the just ostentation that allows to recognize the good society. Fraudster of social fraud, it is by no means hampered by small family arrangements, small gifts between friends.
The eternal contradiction between the moralism displayed for the common people and the morality practiced between one another.

The biggest increase is that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, rising from 11.10% in 2012 (3 984 822voices) to 19.58% (7 060 885) in 2017 when he could not count neither on a decided party, nor on an important network of elected officials, the difficulty in collecting signatures has clearly shown. And with media more interested, initially, by his character, then by his qualities of speaker, finally by his international tropisms but much more rarely by the work in the elaboration of his program, he has built with the social and the ecological, by his desire of a new democracy with the participation of the maximum number of citizens, by his will to attack the far right vote and abstention (caravans for registration on the electoral roll). In the face of the mobilizations he provoked, the media ended by discovering that he had partially circumvented them by its own means.

During this first round, there has already been talk of the useful vote in favor of Emmanuel Macron. It is not unrelated to the fact that Jean-Luc Mélenchon can not participate in the second round, he missed only 600,000 votes. Nationally, it receives 19.58% of the vote. This percentage is between 27 and 30%, according to the surveys, among 18-24 year olds, twice 2012, 24% among workers, and 22% among employees.
Among Muslims, the most secular candidate of the presidential election obtained 37% of the votes (20% in 2012) against 24% for Emmanuel Macron, 17% for Benoît Hamon, 10% for François Fillon and 5% for Marine Le Pen (Poll Ifop – Le Pèlerin).

Second tour et après ?Since the beginning of the electoral campaign, many are giving wise advice to Jean-Luc Mélenchon: to participate in the brilliant primary of the Beautiful People’s Alliance, to rally Benoît Hamon before he is abandoned by the PS and its electors, Now to join the camp of fear.
Yesterday, the fear of everything had bad press because it urged citizens to vote Le Pen, now the fear of Marine Le Pen has good press to push to Macron vote. But the press is always the press, it always goes in the same direction. Yesterday and today ! Bring back into the ranks and in this case, the vote Emmanuel Macron!
Knowing the diversity of points of view of the supporters of The France insoumise for the vote in the second round, Jean-Luc Mélenchon said he would vote but did not say how. It does not give a voting instruction to preserve the unity of the Insoumis before the legislative élections. While recalling that voting Front National was not an option. Neither for him nor for the Insoumis consulted.
La France insoumise organized a consultation open to all the Insoumis to say what they were going to do in the second round, but this consultation is not normative.
He held out a pole to Emmanuel Macron, asking him to make a gesture on the labor law that Macron immediately rejected.
It was predictable. Perhaps he could have asked for a gesture on the use of 49-3 and the ordinances that Emmanuel Macron said he would use them this summer to go faster. A short-circuit, good start, without democratic debate!

Second tour et après ?
The result of the consultation of the Insoumis is now known. 243,000 people gave their opinion about 55% of the 440,000 registered to support the candidacy of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Of course, people can change between the time they gave their opinion and the day of the ballot. But this is not a poll, it is the result of a consultation: white or null vote, 36.12%, vote Emmanuel Macron 34.83%, abstention 29.05% (1). Two-thirds 65.17% will not vote for Emmanuel Macron. According to an Elabe BFMTV poll, 44% of Mélenchon’s voters in the first round would vote for Emmanuel Macron.
These results suggest that the Insoumis will count in the coming weeks. A first indication will be given on Sunday by the rate of abstentions, blank or null ballots: in 2012, there were 9,049,998 abstentions (19.65%), and 2,154,956 blank or invalid ballots (5.82% ) …
 

With the arrival of Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée, they will talk about the triumph of democracy, the Republic, the European Union (which will be called Europe) when we simply elected the ideal son-in-law to continue , the policy pursued for years – with the success known both from a socio-economic and a political point of view with the vote of Marine Le Pen – by the successive rulers whose artisans find themselves in En Marche! The UMPS, as the National Front said, officialized! 

Still, the results of the second round will not settle everything. But to serve as a basis for the discussions, already engaged in all the camps for the legislative investitures. The victory in the presidential election will certainly give a dynamic. It is not certain that it is sufficient to obtain a majority in the National Assembly. Still less a coherent majority. 

From this point of view, Jean-Luc Mélenchon makes risky calculations when he announces that, with the results of the presidential election, La France insoumise can hope to be present in 451 of the 577 districts where it has exceeded the threshold of 12.5% ​​needed to qualify for the second round including the 67 where he came in first. It is probable that there will be many triangulars or even quadrangular ones, but these multiple candidatures risk dividing the left as well as the right. 

It is however a motive for energizing the Insoumis especially if the rate of abstentions, white or null votes is important. Abstentions, white or null votes, form  of resistance, of hope. They will not be counted for the election but will be examined closely and will weigh in the mobilization. 

Hope now is in a refounding of the left around France Insoumise and a group of deputies as extensive as possible. This is what the results of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round of the presidential allows hope … 

Knowing that this will not be enough. And it will take other mobilizations. But it is the first glimmer in Europe for an opposition, not nationalist but for a change of economic and social orientation. 

1 – Note that these Insoumis did not follow Jean-Luc Mélenchon who will vote on Sunday and wants to make the vote mandatory.

Second tour et après ?
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